My biggest single losing trade ever. Where do I start? We all say as traders if you can’t learn something from a bad trade then it was wasted money. In truth, that’s where the most valuable lessons are learned. When I first got into the trade the signals were there. Clear as day. Using the strategy, it was a short.
So what happened? If you want to be hindsight thinking well, I should have taken the small win I had on it or even the couple times I went flat. But, I didn’t. So what caused me to stay in the trade that wasn’t working for so long obviously? Yes, I saw the chart go from a sell signal into a flat out buy signal. Yes, I saw the strength and yes I knew at some point in that trade I was no longer relying on technical trading, I was trading on hope.
I didn’t want to take a loss on the trade. No one wants to lose money that would be the opposite of everything we do in life. I had many opportunities to exit the trade as I said before but the big loss of discipline is where I failed the chart. Do I have anger towards the chart? No. The chart did what it did and it worked great once the buy signals triggered. I, on the other hand did not give the same respect to the signals and stayed biased. Did I have something to prove to myself or the public since it was not hidden that I went short? Looking back, I could hide behind that mindset if it creates comfort in the way it was handled.
I’m a technical trader everyone knows that. I failed to respond to that and lost money. The money is gone now, the markets now holds it for me until I get it back. What I lost on that trade which was more important and expensive was, control. I gave that away the minute I saw the signals change and I stayed biased. Once the control was lost the emotions came rushing in. Fear was not an emotional issue for me on this trade. I had none. Greed was the emotion that made me add into the losing trade. The idea of making more money and getting even heavier on the share size took control of my discipline.
Things we know to be truth can be easily manipulated in this career. Visions of potential gains can and will blind the obvious. The best trades aren’t the ones with the biggest gains and the worst trades aren’t the ones with the biggest loss. No matter how I can try to sugar coat it the loss was there, the initial idea was negated and I stayed wrong and strong results were inevitable. Lesson learned? Eh, I knew this already. So what do I get outta this to be my silver lining? I’m always looking for those in any part of my life. The silver line on this one isn’t for me. It’s for anyone reading this. It’s that; don’t be afraid of any trade or any chart but do be afraid of the beast it creates inside you that steers you wrong.
Questions you may have at the end of this. Did I blow up? No. Can I trade again with conviction being that the last one failed? Yes. Have I been trading other names and making money? Yes. Do I give up trading $SHOP? Noway, the chart is a beast and if I had followed my technical analysis it would have been a great trade and a small loss. I do hope that this does not disqualify me as a trader in your eyes and that in my loss you can find more strength in yourself even if it’s wrong.
We get back on the horse. We make the right decisions and we make money. As I said before the markets just hold that for now for me and it will return to my account.
Be safe everyone



/CL CRUDE oil holding some support at the $50 level and should be used as base for long positions. I entered this past week on the long side with stops at the current lows. Looking for mid $55’s on this entry.



$DXY gave a nice trade on the long side after the daily trend-line breakout. I do think that we see some topping in this range and would be looking for some retrace from this current level this week. es-2-15


/ES Looks like we should test the top side of the channel pattern this week. I would be looking to long into dips. Bulls have shown enough strength to bring us back into the channel. I would not mind seeing some consolidation this week.



/GC Another big cup and handle flag setup on the daily. Broke out on the last idea and continues to be very bullish as a safe haven trade. I would continue to hold on the long side and buy the dips or trade the breakouts.


/NG Not showing any reversal on the daily chart just yet. We did see some buyers come into the commodity this week so it should be on watch moving forward. I wanted to get long in the $1.5 range but, may have to try some long soon if it continues to show strength.



CRUDE came into the level that we’ve been waiting for to get long. I would be very interested this week in testing this level for support. If we break this level we could spiral way outta control and I don’t think money will let that happen.


DXY broke over and retested support level on Friday’s session. I think we could be looking for long here at this level. Not being biased about events we cannot control I would be long in this area.


/ES Broke support from the channel and now should continue to move to the downside into pops. Not knowing events that would immediately change this chart pattern we should be short into pops. We should be testing the $3000 level if we continue this trend.


/GC As we have done a great job thus far charting this commodity I think we have no reason to get bearish on GOLD. We should continue to buy dips and hold as the safe haven trade is strong and the trend shows more upside.


/NG As discussed last week I don’t see any reason to get long NATGAS just yet. I am looking into the $1.50 range for support and that’s where I’m willing to put any money to work.



/ES Support in the lower $3200’s for the near term trend line. Not seeing any reason for major panic here just yet as we needed some pullback. If we continue to break support levels then I would be more concerned about this pullback. Nothing here leaves me bearish for now but, does not mean that I need to put money to work on the long side right now either. I think the best way to trade this chart leading into the week would be with patience and agility.


/GC Since we addressed the breakout flag we see nothing but bullish continuation. I would not be selling here but rather moving stops and looking to add into the cup and handle breakout formation. As more and more fears arise this safe haven trade remains very much intact.


/NG Not showing any signs of support until the mid $1.50 level. I would not be trying to catch this knife here for now. I would rather continue to short pops or leave this commodity alone until it shows reasoning to go long.


/CL My next big level for support comes in the $51.50 level. I would continue to short pops here this week as we have no reason to long at this level. $53.71 would be the next level of support failure. No need to rush into this one on the long side just yet.


$DXY continues to show a bullish breakout reversal on the daily. We should expect to see more upside into this week with resistance levels approaching I would be ready to sell some into that range.



/CL We failed to hold over the recent big daily chart breakout. We are though, coming into some levels of support this week to watch. I am willing to test some long CRUDE again in the $58 level. Will be monitoring carefully but not rushing as geopolitical news could alter this chart very aggressively.



$DXY The last time we came back to the 200sma on the daily this chart failed to break and hold. I would be expecting to see a similar reaction this week as the possibility of a CRUDE move and GOLD move comes into factor.





/ES We should not be at all worried about this chart for now. Are we a little topping and should see a few more sessions of drawbacks? I can see that happening this week for sure. There is not any reason for full blown fear as the chart consolidates and resets. I will be trading the short side this week but, ready to buy at the first signs of support.





/GLD Continues to be safe haven hedge for investors as we broke out and now could be forming some base for another upside week. I think as we remain cautious about the world wide outlook buyers will continue to hedge. I do think however that GOLD may not be the only hedge investors might be looking at as it’s slower than BITCOIN for example which can be the new go to hedge IMO. gc-1-11




/NG I don’t see any reason not to test some NAT GAS here with the risk being well defined. The supply and chart keeps me from being a longer term holder here but, could provide some shorter term play into this week.



/CL CRUDE held its support with authority and looks to break out from the daily chart wedge coming into this week. A break over Friday session’s highs puts the bull flag into play with an upside potential move to upper $60’s. Already long a CRUDE name and looking for some continuation from this move. I remain bullish on the commodity this week.
/DX Short term trend reversal with Friday’s close. The chart showed weakness at its 50EMA before and will need to see it break over that resistance before confirming a reversal on the daily chart. We would need to close over $90.50 levels. I think we can have a couple green days on the index early into the week. I remain neutral to bullish on this chart setup.
/ES After the breakout from the bull flag setup we’ve seen a full week of consolidation and trend retest. This coming week is very important to the direction of this chart. We can easily go in either direction with this setup. I’ll share what I can see from this point. I see a clear double top on the chart. I see lack of fresh interested money and I see the possibility for a serious pullback. Technically I have a bull-flag setup and waiting for possible buyers. Trading what I can see and not what I would like to see I would have to say I cannot be bullish just yet.
/GC The chart continues to show its weakness and now approaches the $1300 levels yet again. We would need to hold that level for any money to come into this chart. It would be easier to wait and observe as the fall off could be sharp if support is broken. I remain neutral to bearish on this chart coming into the week.
/NG NATGAS continues to be the boredom trade of the year. As we continue to fail to see buyers or real sellers on the chart it remains a non eventful trade for both longs and shorts. I don’t have any interest in trading this commodity until it gets some more movement. If we hold the $2.60 level we could push back up to the trend line. I remain bored with NATGAS into this week.


/CL Buyers stepped in right at the support line to hold the trend printing a huge bullish engulfing candle on Friday’s session. Looking for a retest of the low $61’s to confirm the strength for a continued upside move. If it move is to be proven strong we should expect to see $64 range this week where we would be looking for some short term profit taking from this move. A break of that $64 range will then give us potential strength to the upper channel trend levels in the $66 range. I remain bullish into the setup this week with risk to the proven trend line support.
/DX A break over $90.50 zone could create a nice push on this chart. Trading what we can see and not what we “could see”, we should continue to slide from this current range. The new down trend channel creates resistance here and brings the chart down this week. I remain on the sidelines into this chop not assuming a direction until a set direction comes into play.
/ES The chart broke the downtrend line to the upside with some buyers supporting the breakout. We still remain in a slower upside movement as bulls cautiously buys here and bears look for reasons to remain short. The case for a bear could be presented with a double top and less volume short idea whereas, the case for a bull would be the obvious reversal breakout. I would like to see a retest of this breakout with some more volume to the buy side to confirm bulls are back in the drivers seat. I remain long on big names as they continue to parallel this upside movement.
/GC Channel zone is set for GOLD and both sides of the trade could be seen at this point. Technically, we see a lower high into the channel move providing a strong reason to believe the break down of this channel is on  the verge of happening. A break down under the $1300’s could send this chart sharply down well into the low $1200’s. I await this trade but, also see the potential hold. I will trade both sides of this range until a direction is met for any continued hold into that direction.
/NG Showing beginning traits of weakness again into this slow upside move. I exited my long position for now during this week as I feel it isn’t worth the exposure. If we do not see some strong support from bulls here I would have to believe we retest the lows in the coming week. For now, I do not have a position but, would be okay with testing the trade on the short side risking to the current pivot point.


/CL Holding the main uptrend on the daily chart. Hammer candles showing bulls till in control of the major trend for now. Using pivot lows from the main trend a long position could be taken with defined risk. If we hold $60 range we should be able to see $65-$66 levels. I remain bullish into the week risking to the pivot point at $60.
/DX Downtrend remains intact. The chart had a pivot point breakout reason to push higher and failed to continue seeing buyers. We should see continued sellers on the chart into this week and a retest of the trend in the $88.50-$89 range before another direction is attempted. I remain bearish on this chart until a better support is found.
/ES Amidst all bearish comments and prediction traders idea the chart continues to show bigger picture strength. Hammer candle on Friday’s session shows the potential strength on the chart into any support range. Given the opportunity to hold and move this chart is ready to prove many wrong. Very important technical week in store for traders as we need to hold this low pivot point. Risking to Friday’s low a long position could be initiated for a move to $2760 range. Until the lows are broken I will remain bullish into this week.
/GC Channel range on the chart at this juncture. Range bound trading for now from $1365 down to $1300. I would be long using the current lows as we trade in the channel. If we break under $1300 I would expect to see a sharp selloff down to the $1250 range. No reason to be guessing and predicting here as it could be a clean trade using the channel. I will remain bullish on this setup until the chart proves otherwise.
/NG We continue to reside in the buy zone on the chart. We should be able to see a test of the trend-line this week in the $2.80 range. I am currently long into this slow upside move. Couple important levels to watch this week are $2.75 for bulls and $2.57 for bears. I remain long until the chart says otherwise.


/CL Very bullish strength off the retest this week. The chart has a couple resistance zones as it tries to reclaim support trend lines. $64.20 zone and $65.50 areas comes into play this coming week. We would need to see those crucial areas breakout and hold for further continuation. I think we see the early move towards those levels this week then we consolidate for a couple days. I remain bullish on the commodity coming into the week as I am already long.
/DX Technically we’re looking at a double bottom bounce trade. As it stands for right now we have a lower high that’s not bullish. We would need to break over $90.60 in order to be in a trend reversal. Until then we continue to be in a bearish trend. I would rather stand on the sidelines until a direction is fully established.
/ES We closed over the 50EMA on the daily. Even though the buying volume into the upside push is weaker than normal I think it could be associated with hesitation and fear. I don’t see an issue with this chart from a technical perspective. A break over $2755 would be supported by volume. At this point on the chart I remain bullish even into the low volume push.
/GC Very important level on the chart at this point. The chart came into a breakout spot and failed to do so. I think we see weakness and a breakdown on the chart this week. If we break the pivot point levels I would be looking for mid $1200’s. No directional position as of yet for me but, I am ready to trade this setup if we breakdown.
/NG Double bottom on the daily chart. I remain patiently long on NATGAS at this area. We do not have much to go with at this point other than the technical analysis. If we held here we would need to see the $2.60s hold for support.


/CL I’m seeing some topping on the chart. I’m seeing breakout potential with much hesitation. Even though the chart is maintaining a support level it is also showing us sellers and profit takers at this level. I think we see a breakdown of the support this week. I’m considering short term short starter on CRUDE this week. Will be looking for a $63 retest if the short works.
/DX Projected fibs held support for a bounce trade on the USD. Levels remain strong for now and with the proven strength on the chart at this level I will be interested into longing some at the base into pullbacks. Risk will be very defined at the lows. Will be looking for $91’s if the base is held.
/ES Increased selling volume showed up into the last trading session. I think we find temporary support early into the week and produces a short squeeze push. The bigger picture on the chart is not broken. If long positions are managed I could see this pullback being an opportunity not a flaw.
/GC Fib projections held for rejection on GOLD and we are at a pivot breakdown on the chart. If we don’t reclaim $1350 we could be looking at a short term pullback to $1310 before finding better support. I’ll be playing the short on GOLD for the short term pullback.
/NG I took a long NATGAS position into the support on the daily chart. I think we find the support at this range to get us back into the $3.30 range. I will be using the $2.80 levels as reason not to be in the long position anymore.