My biggest single losing trade ever. Where do I start? We all say as traders if you can’t learn something from a bad trade then it was wasted money. In truth, that’s where the most valuable lessons are learned. When I first got into the trade the signals were there. Clear as day. Using the strategy, it was a short.
So what happened? If you want to be hindsight thinking well, I should have taken the small win I had on it or even the couple times I went flat. But, I didn’t. So what caused me to stay in the trade that wasn’t working for so long obviously? Yes, I saw the chart go from a sell signal into a flat out buy signal. Yes, I saw the strength and yes I knew at some point in that trade I was no longer relying on technical trading, I was trading on hope.
I didn’t want to take a loss on the trade. No one wants to lose money that would be the opposite of everything we do in life. I had many opportunities to exit the trade as I said before but the big loss of discipline is where I failed the chart. Do I have anger towards the chart? No. The chart did what it did and it worked great once the buy signals triggered. I, on the other hand did not give the same respect to the signals and stayed biased. Did I have something to prove to myself or the public since it was not hidden that I went short? Looking back, I could hide behind that mindset if it creates comfort in the way it was handled.
I’m a technical trader everyone knows that. I failed to respond to that and lost money. The money is gone now, the markets now holds it for me until I get it back. What I lost on that trade which was more important and expensive was, control. I gave that away the minute I saw the signals change and I stayed biased. Once the control was lost the emotions came rushing in. Fear was not an emotional issue for me on this trade. I had none. Greed was the emotion that made me add into the losing trade. The idea of making more money and getting even heavier on the share size took control of my discipline.
Things we know to be truth can be easily manipulated in this career. Visions of potential gains can and will blind the obvious. The best trades aren’t the ones with the biggest gains and the worst trades aren’t the ones with the biggest loss. No matter how I can try to sugar coat it the loss was there, the initial idea was negated and I stayed wrong and strong results were inevitable. Lesson learned? Eh, I knew this already. So what do I get outta this to be my silver lining? I’m always looking for those in any part of my life. The silver line on this one isn’t for me. It’s for anyone reading this. It’s that; don’t be afraid of any trade or any chart but do be afraid of the beast it creates inside you that steers you wrong.
Questions you may have at the end of this. Did I blow up? No. Can I trade again with conviction being that the last one failed? Yes. Have I been trading other names and making money? Yes. Do I give up trading $SHOP? Noway, the chart is a beast and if I had followed my technical analysis it would have been a great trade and a small loss. I do hope that this does not disqualify me as a trader in your eyes and that in my loss you can find more strength in yourself even if it’s wrong.
We get back on the horse. We make the right decisions and we make money. As I said before the markets just hold that for now for me and it will return to my account.
WordPress.com is excited to announce our newest offering: a course just for beginning bloggers where you’ll learn everything you need to know about blogging from the most trusted experts in the industry. We have helped millions of blogs get up and running, we know what works, and we want you to to know everything we know. This course provides all the fundamental skills and inspiration you need to get your blog started, an interactive community forum, and content updated annually.
/CL CRUDE oil holding some support at the $50 level and should be used as base for long positions. I entered this past week on the long side with stops at the current lows. Looking for mid $55’s on this entry.
$DXY gave a nice trade on the long side after the daily trend-line breakout. I do think that we see some topping in this range and would be looking for some retrace from this current level this week.
/ES Looks like we should test the top side of the channel pattern this week. I would be looking to long into dips. Bulls have shown enough strength to bring us back into the channel. I would not mind seeing some consolidation this week.
/GC Another big cup and handle flag setup on the daily. Broke out on the last idea and continues to be very bullish as a safe haven trade. I would continue to hold on the long side and buy the dips or trade the breakouts.
/NG Not showing any reversal on the daily chart just yet. We did see some buyers come into the commodity this week so it should be on watch moving forward. I wanted to get long in the $1.5 range but, may have to try some long soon if it continues to show strength.
CRUDE came into the level that we’ve been waiting for to get long. I would be very interested this week in testing this level for support. If we break this level we could spiral way outta control and I don’t think money will let that happen.
DXY broke over and retested support level on Friday’s session. I think we could be looking for long here at this level. Not being biased about events we cannot control I would be long in this area.
/ES Broke support from the channel and now should continue to move to the downside into pops. Not knowing events that would immediately change this chart pattern we should be short into pops. We should be testing the $3000 level if we continue this trend.
/GC As we have done a great job thus far charting this commodity I think we have no reason to get bearish on GOLD. We should continue to buy dips and hold as the safe haven trade is strong and the trend shows more upside.
/NG As discussed last week I don’t see any reason to get long NATGAS just yet. I am looking into the $1.50 range for support and that’s where I’m willing to put any money to work.
/ES Support in the lower $3200’s for the near term trend line. Not seeing any reason for major panic here just yet as we needed some pullback. If we continue to break support levels then I would be more concerned about this pullback. Nothing here leaves me bearish for now but, does not mean that I need to put money to work on the long side right now either. I think the best way to trade this chart leading into the week would be with patience and agility.
/GC Since we addressed the breakout flag we see nothing but bullish continuation. I would not be selling here but rather moving stops and looking to add into the cup and handle breakout formation. As more and more fears arise this safe haven trade remains very much intact.
/NG Not showing any signs of support until the mid $1.50 level. I would not be trying to catch this knife here for now. I would rather continue to short pops or leave this commodity alone until it shows reasoning to go long.
/CL My next big level for support comes in the $51.50 level. I would continue to short pops here this week as we have no reason to long at this level. $53.71 would be the next level of support failure. No need to rush into this one on the long side just yet.
$DXY continues to show a bullish breakout reversal on the daily. We should expect to see more upside into this week with resistance levels approaching I would be ready to sell some into that range.
/CL We failed to hold over the recent big daily chart breakout. We are though, coming into some levels of support this week to watch. I am willing to test some long CRUDE again in the $58 level. Will be monitoring carefully but not rushing as geopolitical news could alter this chart very aggressively.
$DXY The last time we came back to the 200sma on the daily this chart failed to break and hold. I would be expecting to see a similar reaction this week as the possibility of a CRUDE move and GOLD move comes into factor.
/ES We should not be at all worried about this chart for now. Are we a little topping and should see a few more sessions of drawbacks? I can see that happening this week for sure. There is not any reason for full blown fear as the chart consolidates and resets. I will be trading the short side this week but, ready to buy at the first signs of support.
/GLD Continues to be safe haven hedge for investors as we broke out and now could be forming some base for another upside week. I think as we remain cautious about the world wide outlook buyers will continue to hedge. I do think however that GOLD may not be the only hedge investors might be looking at as it’s slower than BITCOIN for example which can be the new go to hedge IMO.
/NG I don’t see any reason not to test some NAT GAS here with the risk being well defined. The supply and chart keeps me from being a longer term holder here but, could provide some shorter term play into this week.